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27

FCEL

๐Ÿญ Industrials

FuelCell Energy, Inc.

Conservative #1147Aggressive #701Moderate RiskModerate 74
$9.02+4.83%
Day High$9.06
Day Low$8.29
Volume1.0M
Mkt Cap$430M
52W Low $452W High $12
Market Cap
$401M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
41.0%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
-49.1%
Profit Margin
-119.3%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
0.20

Why This Score

FCEL scores 27.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (25%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (74/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (28.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-3.0 points) applied. FCEL's rank of #1147 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score27.3
Fundamental Score30.0
ML Score25.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
21.5
6 Month
24.0
Primary
1 Year
25.3

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
2.8%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
55
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
53
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
77
Grade Bsmall cap
Base
27.1
SHAP
+0.7
Factors
-0.5
Final
27.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)49.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)74.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)77.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-11.8% to -6.3%
Medium-term
-15.6% to -7.7%
Long-term
-19.4% to -9.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 25

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score52.6/100
Target Upside+14.4%
Coverage19 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score54.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.7%
Volatility+0.3%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-46.8%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.35)
Relative Strength vs Sector+14.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.9)
Momentum Quality+0.188
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P92
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P56
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P3
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
+0.5ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 36 relative to sector peers36/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 36th percentileP36
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +0.7pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (35.9) + 9% ML (35.3) + SHAP(+0.7) = 36.6โ€”
Factor quality: -0.5pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 28.7%. Max drawdown 25% (-6.9 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -20.0 points ($0.4B market cap)-20.0 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -18 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Non-operating loss: operating margin (-76.6%) exceeds net margin (-119.3%) by 43pp โ€” possible write-down; High accrual ratio (34.5%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials โ€” Rank #113 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FCEL27.3N/A41.0%-119.3%$401M
FER84.112.27.4%35.3%$52.6B
NDSN77.235.13.8%17.4%$16.2B
OMAB76.420.14.3%32.7%$6.1B
ODFL76.339.8-0.9%20.4%$40.8B
FAST73.142.68.7%15.3%$51.7B
CSX71.526.5-3.1%20.5%$78.9B
WWD71.347.87.3%12.4%$23.0B
LECO71.331.5-4.4%11.6%$15.6B
PCAR71.028.2-4.2%12.4%$65.1B
CTAS70.841.97.7%17.5%$80.3B
RYAAY69.913.03.8%11.6%$36.1B
CPRT69.523.09.7%33.4%$35.6B
FELE69.335.5-2.1%8.9%$4.3B
NSSC68.934.5-3.8%24.7%$1.7B
AEIS68.081.221.4%8.3%$12.3B
Sector Average45.749.919.0%-48.2%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold19 analysts
Buy: 5Hold: 12Sell: 2
Price Target
$9consensus
Low $7Median $7High $12
-2.9% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

FuelCell Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, sells, installs, operates, and services stationary fuel cell power plants for distributed baseload power generation. It offers SureSource1500, a 1.4-megawatt (MW) platform; SureSource 3000, a 2.8 MW platform; SureSource 4000, a 3.7 MW platform; SureSource 250, a 250- kilowatt (kW) platform; SureSource 400, a 400-kW platform; and SureSource Hydrogen, a 2.3 MW platform that is designed to produce up to 1,200 kilograms of hydrogen per day for multi-megawatt utility, microgrid, and distributed hydrogen applications, as well as on-site heat and chilling applications. It also provides SureSource Capture system that separates and concentrates carbon dioxide from the flue gases of natural gas, biomass, or coal-fired power plants, as well as industrial facilities; solid oxide fuel cell/solid oxide electrolysis cell stack technology. The company's SureSource power plants generate clean electricity, usable heat, water, and hydrogen. In addition, it provides engineering, procurement, and construction services; project financing services; and real-time monitoring and remote operation, online support system, preventative maintenance, parts and supplies, on-site and classroom training, and power plant refurbishment/recycling services, as well as technical services in the areas of plant operation and performance, and fuel processing. It serves various markets, including utilities and independent power producers, industrial and process applications, education and health care, data centers and communication, wastewater treatment, government, microgrids, food and beverage, and commercial and hospitality. The company primarily operates in the United States, South Korea, England, Germany, and Switzerland. FuelCell Energy, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Danbury, Connecticut.

CEO
Jason Few
Employees
584
Beta
1.34
Industry
Electrical Equipment & Parts
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
80.6
Overbought
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-24.9%
High: $11.99
From 52W Low
+151.4%
Low: $3.58
Moving Averages
10-Day
$7.90
Above
20-Day
$7.70
Above
50-Day
$8.10
Above
200-Day
$6.80
Above
60-Day Support
$6.24
60-Day Resistance
$10.9
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+32.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+14.92%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.55x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
14
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$55M$47M$37M$19M
Gross Profit$-7M$-5M$-9M$-5M
Operating Income$43M$-95M$-36M$-33M
Net Income$-30M$-92M$-38M$-29M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.85$-3.78$-1.79$-1.42
Gross Margin-12.1%-11.0%-25.2%-27.4%
Operating Margin77.8%-204.0%-95.7%-172.9%
Net Margin-54.3%-196.1%-101.7%-153.3%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsRevenue growth 41.0%Valuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 77/100Score impact: -32.6pt

Volume
100
2.5M avg/day
Dollar Vol
78
$19M/day
Float
78
48M shares
Mkt Cap
17
$401M
Range
100
235% spread
Composite Liquidity Score77/100
FDCBA
small cap
Free Float
99.7%
Outstanding Shares
48M
Bid-Ask Spread
235.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.