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ESLT

๐Ÿญ Industrials

Elbit Systems Ltd.

Conservative #312Aggressive #67Low RiskMLโ†‘ 18pt
$769.04+0.49%
Day High$774.00
Day Low$759.12
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$35.7B
52W Low $32852W High $776
Market Cap
$34.8B
P/E Ratio
68.6
Sector avg: 49.9
Rev Growth
14.3%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
49.3%
Profit Margin
4.7%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
0.42

Why This Score

ESLT scores 61.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (119%) increases mean-reversion probability. 3-point penalty applied.
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 68.6x earnings โ€” requires sustained growth to justify the premium.

Moderate penalties (-7.2 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score61.8
Fundamental Score59.1
ML Score89.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
76.4
6 Month
85.4
Primary
1 Year
89.9

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
52
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
54
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
67
Grade Blow volume
Base
60.0
SHAP
+3.1
Factors
+0.9
Divergence
-2.2
Final
61.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

63AVG
Value40
Quality55
Growth90
Stability75
Investment55

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)52.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)91.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)51.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+4.0% to +8.9%
Medium-term
+6.9% to +14.4%
Long-term
+10.0% to +20.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 89

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score54.2/100
Target Upside-28.9%
Coverage6 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score51.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+1.2%
6M Momentum+0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+77.5%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.35)
Relative Strength vs Sector+108.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.096
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P75
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P11
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P40
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 59 relative to sector peers59/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 89th percentileP89
Blended score: 80% fundamental (59) + 20% ML (89) = 65.165.1
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 8% โ†’ 0.0pt; Positive momentum 119% โ†’ -3.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -2.2pt (ML 30pt higher)Divergence
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials โ€” Rank #27 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ESLT61.868.614.3%4.7%$34.8B
FER84.112.27.4%35.3%$53.6B
NDSN77.235.13.8%17.4%$16.0B
OMAB76.420.14.3%32.7%$6.0B
ODFL76.339.8-0.9%20.4%$42.2B
FAST73.142.68.7%15.3%$52.8B
CSX71.526.5-3.1%20.5%$79.2B
WWD71.347.87.3%12.4%$23.1B
LECO71.331.5-4.4%11.6%$15.5B
PCAR71.028.2-4.2%12.4%$65.2B
CTAS70.841.97.7%17.5%$80.2B
RYAAY69.913.03.8%11.6%$35.5B
CPRT69.523.09.7%33.4%$36.2B
FELE69.335.5-2.1%8.9%$4.4B
NSSC68.934.5-3.8%24.7%$1.6B
AEIS68.081.221.4%8.3%$12.5B
Sector Average45.849.919.0%-48.2%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold6 analysts
Buy: 1Hold: 5
Price Target
$531consensus
Low $531Median $531High $531
-31.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Elbit Systems Ltd. develops and supplies a portfolio of airborne, land, and naval systems and products for the defense, homeland security, and commercial aviation applications primarily in Israel. The company offers military aircraft and helicopter systems; commercial aviation systems and aerostructures; unmanned aircraft systems; electro-optic, night vision, and countermeasures systems; naval systems; land vehicle systems; munitions, such as precision munitions for land, air, and sea applications; command, control, communications, computer, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, and cyber systems; electronic warfare and signal intelligence systems; and other commercial activities. It also manufactures and sells data links and radio communication systems and equipment, and cyber intelligence, autonomous, and homeland security solutions; laser systems and products; guided rocket systems; and armored vehicle and other platforms survivability and protection systems, as well as provides various training and support services. The company markets its systems and products as a prime contractor or subcontractor to various governments and companies. It also has operations in the United States, Europe, Latin America, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 1966 and is based in Haifa, Israel.

CEO
Bezhalel Machlis
Employees
19,712
Beta
-0.22
Industry
Aerospace & Defense
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
83.0
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-0.9%
High: $775.99
From 52W Low
+153.9%
Low: $302.89
Moving Averages
10-Day
$733.20
Above
20-Day
$708.20
Above
50-Day
$671.40
Above
200-Day
$515.90
Above
60-Day Support
$462.05
60-Day Resistance
$775.99
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+49.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+18.63%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.2x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Above Entry Zone RSI overbought
$490.41
Stop Entry Now Target
$852.12
Entry Zone
$664.69 โ€“ $691.54
SMA50 pullback zone ($664.69โ€“$691.54)
Exit Target
$827.30
52-week high / +22% target ($827.3)
Stop Level
$505.58
Below SMA200 ($505.58)
Risk / Reward:1 : 0.86Tight

Stage 2 uptrend โ€” institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$1.9B$2.1B$1.8B$2.0B
Gross Profit$485M$500M$440M$473M
Operating Income$174M$167M$145M$144M
Net Income$135M$133M$104M$91M
EPS (Diluted)$2.84$2.69$2.35$2.00
Gross Margin24.9%24.0%24.0%24.1%
Operating Margin8.9%8.0%7.9%7.3%
Net Margin6.9%6.4%5.6%4.7%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsRevenue growth 14.3%

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 67/100Score impact: -11.8pt

Volume
23
118K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$88M/day
Float
57
27M shares
Mkt Cap
92
$34.8B
Range
100
154% spread
Composite Liquidity Score67/100
FDCBA
low volume

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$122.85$177.7136.5%Wide
2022$159.00$244.8042.5%Wide
2023$162.01$225.2232.6%Moderate
2024$175.30$266.3541.2%Wide
2025$258.71$586.3477.5%Wide
3-Year Range
113.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
57.6%
Outstanding Shares
46M
Bid-Ask Spread
154.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.