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43

CWST

๐Ÿญ Industrials

Casella Waste Systems, Inc.

Conservative #793Aggressive #926Low RiskMLโ†‘ 30pt
$93.16+1.12%
Day High$94.57
Day Low$89.93
Volume0.6M
Mkt Cap$5.8B
52W Low $8252W High $121
Market Cap
$5.6B
P/E Ratio
432.2
Sector avg: 49.9
Rev Growth
23.1%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
-46.7%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
0.78

Why This Score

CWST scores 43.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Low volatility (5.0% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
Risk Factors
  • Elevated valuation at 432.2x earnings โ€” requires sustained growth to justify the premium.

Minor adjustments (-2.1 points) applied. CWST's rank of #793 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score43.9
Fundamental Score45.3
ML Score29.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
70.4
6 Month
78.6
Primary
1 Year
82.8

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
52
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
65
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
90
Grade A
Base
42.0
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+1.2
Conviction
-1.0
Divergence
-0.2
Final
43.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

46AVG
Value40
Quality55
Growth35
Stability60
Investment40

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)31.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)58.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)79.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.2% to +4.1%
Medium-term
+0.4% to +7.0%
Long-term
+1.0% to +9.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 29

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.3/100
Target Upside+26.3%
Coverage18 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score51.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-12.7%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.71)
Relative Strength vs Sector-18.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.5)
Momentum Quality-0.056
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P82
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P0
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P80
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 45 relative to sector peers45/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 29th percentileP29
Blended score: 80% fundamental (45) + 20% ML (29) = 42.042.0
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 25% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -1.0pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -0.2pt (ML 16pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials โ€” Rank #78 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CWST43.9432.223.1%0.9%$5.6B
FER84.112.27.4%35.3%$53.6B
NDSN77.235.13.8%17.4%$16.0B
OMAB76.420.14.3%32.7%$6.0B
ODFL76.339.8-0.9%20.4%$42.2B
FAST73.142.68.7%15.3%$52.8B
CSX71.526.5-3.1%20.5%$79.2B
WWD71.347.87.3%12.4%$23.1B
LECO71.331.5-4.4%11.6%$15.5B
PCAR71.028.2-4.2%12.4%$65.2B
CTAS70.841.97.7%17.5%$80.2B
RYAAY69.913.03.8%11.6%$35.5B
CPRT69.523.09.7%33.4%$36.2B
FELE69.335.5-2.1%8.9%$4.4B
NSSC68.934.5-3.8%24.7%$1.6B
AEIS68.081.221.4%8.3%$12.5B
Sector Average45.849.919.0%-48.2%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Casella Waste Systems, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a vertically integrated solid waste services company in the northeastern United States. It offers resource management services primarily in the areas of solid waste collection and disposal, transfer, recycling, and organics services to residential, commercial, municipal, institutional, and industrial customers. The company provides a range of non-hazardous solid waste services, including collections, transfer stations, and disposal facilities. It also markets recyclable metals, aluminum, plastics, and paper and corrugated cardboard that are processed at its facilities, as well as recyclables purchased from third parties. In addition, the company is involved in commodity brokerage operations. As of January 31, 2022, it owned and/or operated 50 solid waste collection operations, 65 transfer stations, 23 recycling facilities, 8 Subtitle D landfills, 3 landfill gas-to-energy facilities, and 1 landfill permitted to accept construction and demolition materials. Casella Waste Systems, Inc. was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Rutland, Vermont.

CEO
John W. Casella Jr.
Employees
5,100
Beta
0.79
Industry
Waste Management
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
30.7
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-23.2%
High: $121.24
From 52W Low
+13.3%
Low: $82.22
Moving Averages
10-Day
$96.60
Below
20-Day
$100.20
Below
50-Day
$101.20
Below
200-Day
$100.90
Below
60-Day Support
$88.51
60-Day Resistance
$107.96
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 21/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3โ†’4
Price vs 200 SMA
-7.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-3.55%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.04x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
7
Confidence: 50%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$469M$485M$465M$417M
Gross Profit$77M$91M$80M$65M
Operating Income$21M$34M$26M$9M
Net Income$-3M$10M$5M$-5M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.04$0.16$0.08$-0.08
Gross Margin16.4%18.8%17.2%15.6%
Operating Margin4.4%7.0%5.5%2.1%
Net Margin-0.5%2.1%1.1%-1.2%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsRevenue growth 23.1%

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 90/100Score impact: +10.5pt

Volume
96
903K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$84M/day
Float
85
62M shares
Mkt Cap
69
$5.6B
Range
84
47% spread
Composite Liquidity Score90/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 17/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$57.71$89.8443.6%Wide
2022$63.90$92.7536.8%Wide
2023$72.33$95.7827.9%Moderate
2024$80.04$114.8835.7%Wide
2025$82.22$121.2438.4%Wide
3-Year Range
50.5%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.4%
Outstanding Shares
63M
Bid-Ask Spread
47.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.