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32

ASLE

๐Ÿญ Industrials

AerSale Corporation

Conservative #1045Aggressive #1037Moderate RiskMLโ†‘ 20pt
$7.80+1.30%
Day High$7.83
Day Low$7.61
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$368M
52W Low $652W High $9
Market Cap
$368M
P/E Ratio
48.7
Sector avg: 49.9
Rev Growth
3.2%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
205.2%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
0.38

Why This Score

ASLE scores 32.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated valuation at 48.7x earnings โ€” requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (14.7%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-6.7 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score32.0
Fundamental Score38.8
ML Score19.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
63.9
6 Month
71.4
Primary
1 Year
75.2

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
65
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
56
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
46
Grade Clow dollar volume, small cap
Base
29.8
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+1.0
Conviction
-0.5
Divergence
-0.7
Final
32.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

49AVG
Value53
Quality25
Growth73
Stability73
Investment21

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)44.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)46.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 19

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score56.3/100
Target Upside+77.3%
Coverage4 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score65.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 โ€” Topping
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+19.5%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.21)
Relative Strength vs Sector-7.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.2)
Momentum Quality+0.026
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P43
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P18
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P12
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 39 relative to sector peers39/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 19th percentileP19
Blended score: 80% fundamental (39) + 20% ML (19) = 34.834.8
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 25% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -0.5pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -0.7pt (ML 20pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -5.0pt (grade C)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials โ€” Rank #105 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ASLE32.048.73.2%2.2%$368M
FER84.112.27.4%35.3%$53.6B
NDSN77.235.13.8%17.4%$16.0B
OMAB76.420.14.3%32.7%$6.0B
ODFL76.339.8-0.9%20.4%$42.2B
FAST73.142.68.7%15.3%$52.8B
CSX71.526.5-3.1%20.5%$79.2B
WWD71.347.87.3%12.4%$23.1B
LECO71.331.5-4.4%11.6%$15.5B
PCAR71.028.2-4.2%12.4%$65.2B
CTAS70.841.97.7%17.5%$80.2B
RYAAY69.913.03.8%11.6%$35.5B
CPRT69.523.09.7%33.4%$36.2B
FELE69.335.5-2.1%8.9%$4.4B
NSSC68.934.5-3.8%24.7%$1.6B
AEIS68.081.221.4%8.3%$12.5B
Sector Average45.849.919.0%-48.2%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

AerSale Corporation provides aftermarket commercial aircraft, engines, and its parts to passenger and cargo airlines, leasing companies, original equipment manufacturers, and government and defense contractors, as well as maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) service providers worldwide. It operates in two segments, Asset Management Solutions and Technical Operations (TechOps). The Asset Management Solutions segment engages in the sale and lease of aircraft, engines, and airframes, as well as disassembly of these assets for component parts. The TechOps segment provides internal and third-party aviation services, including internally developed engineered solutions, heavy aircraft maintenance and modification, and component MRO, as well as end-of-life disassembly services. This segment also provides aircraft modifications, cargo and tanker conversions of aircraft, and aircraft storage; and MRO services for landing gear, thrust reversers, hydraulic systems, and other aircraft components. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Coral Gables, Florida.

CEO
Nicolas Finazzo
Employees
636
Beta
0.20
Industry
Airlines, Airports & Air Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
67.0
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-14.5%
High: $9.12
From 52W Low
+40.3%
Low: $5.56
Moving Averages
10-Day
$7.50
Above
20-Day
$7.50
Above
50-Day
$7.40
Above
200-Day
$7.10
Above
60-Day Support
$6.4
60-Day Resistance
$7.87
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 โ€” ToppingScore: 27/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+9.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+0.08%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.72x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
41
Confidence: 70%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
$7.03
Stop Entry Now Target
$8.03
No Entry
โ€”
No new entry โ€” distribution phase
Exit Target
$7.80
Reduce at current price ($7.8)
Stop Level
$7.25
Below SMA50 ($7.25)

Stage 3 distribution โ€” institutional selling pressure is building. Avoid new positions. If already holding, consider reducing and tightening stops below SMA50.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$71M$107M$66M$95M
Gross Profit$21M$35M$18M$30M
Operating Income$3M$13M$-7M$5M
Net Income$1M$9M$-5M$3M
EPS (Diluted)$0.03$0.18$-0.10$0.05
Gross Margin30.2%32.9%27.3%31.4%
Operating Margin4.0%11.7%-10.1%5.2%
Net Margin1.9%8.0%-8.0%2.9%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsValuation below sector median (P/E 48.7)

Tradability FilterGrade C โ€” 46/100Score impact: -2.2pt

Volume
60
298K avg/day
Dollar Vol
16
$2M/day
Float
63
33M shares
Mkt Cap
16
$368M
Range
92
64% spread
Composite Liquidity Score46/100
FDCBA
low dollar volumesmall cap

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
70.7%
Outstanding Shares
47M
Bid-Ask Spread
64.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.