Back to Dashboard
55

SAIA

🏭 Industrials

Saia, Inc.

Conservative #424Aggressive #395Moderate RiskHigh 95
$384.33-4.29%
Day High$404.43
Day Low$380.00
Volume0.8M
Mkt Cap$10.2B
52W Low $22952W High $430
Market Cap
$11.0B
P/E Ratio
43.2
Sector avg: 64.5
Rev Growth
0.8%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
-29.6%
Profit Margin
7.9%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
0.16

Why This Score

SAIA scores 55.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (95/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 43.2x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (12.3%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-3.9 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score55.1
Fundamental Score46.8
ML Score88.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
58.4
6 Month
65.3
Primary
1 Year
68.7

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
42
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
83
Grade A
Base
55.0
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+2.1
Divergence
-3.9
Final
55.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)37.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)58.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)76.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.2% to +2.9%
Medium-term
-1.4% to +4.9%
Long-term
-1.5% to +7.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 88

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score62.5/100
Target Upside+1.6%
Coverage32 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score42.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-35.8%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.20)
Relative Strength vs Sector-17.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.5)
Momentum Quality-0.042
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P37
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P25
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P28
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 66 relative to sector peers66/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 68th percentileP68
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (65.5) + 9% ML (68.1) + SHAP(+1.8) = 67.5
Factor quality: +1.0pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 12.3%. Max drawdown 30% (-8.9 pts). Price momentum -6% (-0.2 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($11.0B market cap)+2.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.0pt (conviction=95)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-133.3%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials — Rank #40 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SAIA55.143.20.8%7.9%$11.0B
FER83.712.27.4%35.3%$51.9B
NDSN76.335.13.8%17.4%$16.6B
OMAB76.120.14.3%32.7%$6.2B
ODFL75.839.8-0.9%20.4%$40.6B
FAST72.742.68.7%15.3%$53.3B
WWD70.947.87.3%12.4%$22.8B
CSX70.926.5-3.1%20.5%$76.0B
LECO70.931.5-4.4%11.6%$16.2B
CTAS70.441.97.7%17.5%$77.7B
PCAR70.428.2-4.2%12.4%$66.7B
RYAAY69.713.03.8%11.6%$34.3B
CPRT69.123.09.7%33.4%$36.3B
FELE68.535.5-2.1%8.9%$4.8B
AEIS67.881.221.4%8.3%$11.9B
IESC67.730.916.9%9.1%$10.3B
Sector Average45.264.519.0%-48.2%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy32 analysts
Buy: 17Hold: 14Sell: 1
Price Target
$401consensus
Low $262Median $413High $493
+4.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Saia, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a transportation company in North America. The company provides less-than-truckload services for shipments between 400 and 10,000 pounds; and other value-added services, including non-asset truckload, expedited, and logistics services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 176 owned and leased facilities; and owned approximately 5,600 tractors and 19,300 trailers. The company was formerly known as SCS Transportation, Inc. and changed its name to Saia, Inc. in July 2006. Saia, Inc. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Johns Creek, Georgia.

CEO
Frederick J. Holzgrefe
Employees
15,300
Beta
2.08
Industry
Trucking
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
41.8
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-10.7%
High: $430.35
From 52W Low
+67.7%
Low: $229.12
Moving Averages
10-Day
$391.90
Below
20-Day
$385.20
Below
50-Day
$361.20
Above
200-Day
$309.10
Above
60-Day Support
$276.69
60-Day Resistance
$417.85
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 — ToppingScore: 44/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+24.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.06%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.97x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
58
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$790M$840M$817M$788M
Gross Profit$173M$214M$144M$113M
Operating Income$64M$119M$99M$70M
Net Income$48M$86M$71M$50M
EPS (Diluted)$1.77$3.22$2.67$1.86
Gross Margin21.9%25.4%17.7%14.3%
Operating Margin8.1%14.1%12.2%8.9%
Net Margin6.0%10.3%8.7%6.3%

Why This Stock

Industrials

Tradability FilterGrade A — 83/100Score impact: -12.5pt

Volume
81
519K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$206M/day
Float
57
27M shares
Mkt Cap
80
$11.0B
Range
100
88% spread
Composite Liquidity Score83/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$187.02$365.5064.6%Wide
2022$168.03$342.9968.5%Wide
2023$204.02$461.9277.5%Wide
2024$358.90$628.3454.6%Wide
2025$229.12$538.0380.5%Wide
3-Year Range
102%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.7%
Outstanding Shares
27M
Bid-Ask Spread
88.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.