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NWE

๐Ÿ’ก Utilities

Northwestern Energy Group Inc

Conservative #453Aggressive #871Low RiskMLโ†‘ 21pt
$69.96+0.20%
Day High$70.38
Day Low$69.61
Volume0.3M
Mkt Cap$4.3B
52W Low $5052W High $71
Market Cap
$4.3B
P/E Ratio
23.4
Sector avg: 28.2
Rev Growth
6.4%
Sector avg: 23.4%
Earnings Growth
-19.2%
Profit Margin
11.2%
Sector avg: 4.3%
Debt/Equity
1.14

Why This Score

NWE scores 56.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (30%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.14) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-4.8 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score56.3
Fundamental Score58.6
ML Score51.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
64.8
6 Month
72.4
Primary
1 Year
76.2

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Low FCF/NI ratio (0.11) with 11.2% net margin โ€” reported earnings may not be cash-backed

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
47
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
51
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
79
Grade Brange bound
Base
52.3
SHAP
+3.3
Factors
+0.7
Final
56.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

48AVG
Value73
Quality41
Growth32
Stability70
Investment22

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)45.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)84.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)50.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.4% to +2.7%
Medium-term
-1.6% to +4.6%
Long-term
-1.8% to +6.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 51

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score51.4/100
Target Upside-10.6%
Coverage18 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score46.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+6.7%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.78)
Relative Strength vs Sector+16.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.9)
Momentum Quality+0.268
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P68
Revenue growth vs Utilities peers
Sector PE Rank
P26
Valuation vs Utilities peers
Sector FCF Rank
P26
Free cash flow vs Utilities peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 59 relative to sector peers59/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 51th percentileP51
Blended score: 80% fundamental (59) + 20% ML (51) = 57.157.1
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 12% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +3.3pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Low FCF/NI ratio (0.11) with 11.2% net margin โ€” reported earnings may not be cash-backedFlag
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Utilities โ€” Rank #7 of 19 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
NWE56.323.46.4%11.2%$4.3B
AEP74.319.510.9%16.4%$72.6B
EVRG72.822.76.2%14.9%$19.2B
OTTR71.412.9-2.0%21.2%$3.6B
LNT69.622.4-1.1%17.3%$18.5B
EXC67.217.85.3%11.4%$50.8B
ENLT60.568.352.7%11.1%$9.6B
CEG55.833.0-5.4%15.9%$102.3B
HTO54.018.011.6%13.6%$2.0B
TLN53.778.8-14.1%48.1%$16.9B
MGEE53.122.0-2.0%18.6%$3.0B
CWCO52.335.0-25.7%12.9%$613M
MSEX51.623.31.5%22.0%$1.0B
RNW43.414.919.4%9.2%$2.0B
ARTNA42.815.39.2%20.2%$345M
YORW35.323.55.5%26.1%$478M
Sector Average51.828.223.4%4.3%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

NorthWestern Corporation, doing business as NorthWestern Energy, provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and various industrial customers. The company operates through Electric and Natural Gas segments. It generates, purchases, transmits, and distributes electricity; and produces, purchases, stores, transmits, and distributes natural gas, as well as owns municipal franchises to provide natural gas service in the communities. The company operates 6,819 miles of electric transmission and 18,177 miles of electric distribution lines with approximately 400 transmission and distribution substations; and 2,166 miles of natural gas transmission and 4,945 miles of natural gas distribution lines with approximately 138 city gate stations in Montana. It also operates 1,308 miles of electric transmission and 2,320 miles of electric distribution lines in South Dakota; and 55 miles of natural gas transmission and 2,517 miles of natural gas distribution lines in South Dakota and Nebraska. The company serves approximately 753,600 customers in Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Yellowstone National Park. NorthWestern Corporation was incorporated in 1923 and is based in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

CEO
Brian Bird
Employees
1,585
Beta
0.35
Industry
Diversified Utilities
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
65.1
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-1.8%
High: $71.26
From 52W Low
+38.6%
Low: $50.46
Moving Averages
10-Day
$69.30
Above
20-Day
$68.90
Above
50-Day
$67.10
Above
200-Day
$60.00
Above
60-Day Support
$62.48
60-Day Resistance
$71.26
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 75/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+16.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+5.66%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.94x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Above Entry Zone
$57.04
Stop Entry Now Target
$85.16
Entry Zone
$66.43 โ€“ $69.11
SMA50 pullback zone ($66.43โ€“$69.11)
Exit Target
$82.68
52-week high / +22% target ($82.68)
Stop Level
$58.80
Below SMA200 ($58.8)
Risk / Reward:1 : 1.66Tight

Stage 2 uptrend โ€” institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$414M$387M$343M$467M
Gross Profit$203M$323M$205M$272M
Operating Income$60M$80M$61M$125M
Net Income$45M$38M$21M$77M
EPS (Diluted)$0.72$0.62$0.35$1.25
Gross Margin49.0%83.4%59.8%58.2%
Operating Margin14.5%20.7%17.7%26.7%
Net Margin10.8%9.9%6.2%16.5%

Why This Stock

UtilitiesP/E ratio of 23.4Profit margin 11.2%

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 79/100Score impact: +5.6pt

Volume
84
607K avg/day
Dollar Vol
95
$42M/day
Float
60
0K shares
Mkt Cap
66
$4.3B
Range
81
41% spread
Composite Liquidity Score79/100
FDCBA
range bound

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Range-BoundSideways: 55/100
Range-Bound Stock

This stock has traded in a compressed range for 4 of the last 5 years (3-year range: 40.4%). Range-bound stocks may indicate limited upside potential. A -2.8pt penalty has been applied.

YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$53.66$70.8027.5%Moderate
2022$48.68$63.0625.7%Moderate
2023$45.97$61.2428.5%Moderate
2024$46.15$57.4921.9%Narrow
2025$50.46$69.2331.4%Moderate
3-Year Range
40.4%
Narrow Years
4 / 5
Sideways Penalty
-2.8pt

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
range bound

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
41.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.