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55

CEG

๐Ÿ’ก Utilities

Constellation Energy Corporatio

Conservative #465Aggressive #288Moderate Risk
$329.88+1.95%
Day High$330.03
Day Low$318.60
Volume3.4M
Mkt Cap$103.0B
52W Low $16152W High $413
Market Cap
$102.3B
P/E Ratio
33.0
Sector avg: 28.2
Rev Growth
-5.4%
Sector avg: 23.4%
Earnings Growth
131.0%
Profit Margin
15.9%
Sector avg: 4.3%
Debt/Equity
0.64

Why This Score

CEG scores 55.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 28.5% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (16%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
  • Large-cap ($102B) with deep liquidity and institutional ownership.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (15.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-3.9 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score55.8
Fundamental Score47.9
ML Score89.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
65.5
6 Month
73.3
Primary
1 Year
77.1

Quality Assessment

B
Quality Grade
Good quality โ€” solid metrics, minor concerns possible
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Low FCF/NI ratio (0.03) with 15.9% net margin โ€” reported earnings may not be cash-backed

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
68
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
68
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
100
Grade A
Base
56.1
SHAP
+2.5
Factors
+1.1
Divergence
-3.9
Final
55.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

75AVG
Value55
Quality85
Growth90
Stability75
Investment70

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)64.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)50.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 89

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.1/100
Target Upside+42.7%
Coverage18 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score67.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+21.9%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.39)
Relative Strength vs Sector+1.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.0)
Momentum Quality+0.118
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
6%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P21
Revenue growth vs Utilities peers
Sector PE Rank
P16
Valuation vs Utilities peers
Sector FCF Rank
P47
Free cash flow vs Utilities peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 48 relative to sector peers48/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 89th percentileP89
Blended score: 80% fundamental (48) + 20% ML (89) = 56.156.1
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%; Drawdown 25% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade B
SHAP feature alignment: +2.5pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -3.9pt (ML 41pt higher)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Low FCF/NI ratio (0.03) with 15.9% net margin โ€” reported earnings may not be cash-backedFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Utilities โ€” Rank #8 of 19 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CEG55.833.0-5.4%15.9%$102.3B
AEP74.319.510.9%16.4%$72.6B
EVRG72.822.76.2%14.9%$19.2B
OTTR71.412.9-2.0%21.2%$3.6B
LNT69.622.4-1.1%17.3%$18.5B
EXC67.217.85.3%11.4%$50.8B
ENLT60.568.352.7%11.1%$9.6B
NWE56.323.46.4%11.2%$4.3B
HTO54.018.011.6%13.6%$2.0B
TLN53.778.8-14.1%48.1%$16.9B
MGEE53.122.0-2.0%18.6%$3.0B
CWCO52.335.0-25.7%12.9%$613M
MSEX51.623.31.5%22.0%$1.0B
RNW43.414.919.4%9.2%$2.0B
ARTNA42.815.39.2%20.2%$345M
YORW35.323.55.5%26.1%$478M
Sector Average51.828.223.4%4.3%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Constellation Energy Corporation generates and sells electricity in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and Other Power Regions. It sells natural gas, renewable energy, and other energy-related products and services. The company has 32,400 megawatts of generating capacity consisting of nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, and hydroelectric assets. It serves distribution utilities; municipalities; cooperatives; and commercial, industrial, governmental, and residential customers. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland. Constellation Energy Corporation was formerly a subsidiary of Exelon Corporation.

CEO
Joseph Dominguez
Employees
14,215
Beta
1.14
Industry
Renewable Utilities
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
83.8
Overbought
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-20.1%
High: $412.7
From 52W Low
+104.4%
Low: $161.35
Moving Averages
10-Day
$305.80
Above
20-Day
$286.60
Above
50-Day
$314.20
Above
200-Day
$328.40
Above
60-Day Support
$243.3
60-Day Resistance
$380.78
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 69/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Transition signal: 1โ†’2
Price vs 200 SMA
+0.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+9.14%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.08x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
1
Confidence: 50%

Entry & Exit Zones

Above Entry Zone RSI overbought
$301.73
Stop Entry Now Target
$425.08
Entry Zone
$311.06 โ€“ $323.63
SMA50 pullback zone ($311.06โ€“$323.63)
Exit Target
$412.70
52-week high / +22% target ($412.7)
Stop Level
$321.83
Below SMA200 ($321.83)

Stage 2 uptrend โ€” institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$5.5B$7.2B$6.1B$6.8B
Gross Profit$15.7B$1.7B$1.1B$859M
Operating Income$145M$1.5B$951M$451M
Net Income$432M$930M$839M$118M
EPS (Diluted)$1.38$2.97$2.67$0.38
Gross Margin287.5%23.7%18.0%12.7%
Operating Margin2.7%21.4%15.6%6.6%
Net Margin7.9%12.9%13.8%1.7%

Why This Stock

UtilitiesProfit margin 15.9%

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 100/100Score impact: -9.1pt

Volume
100
3.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$966M/day
Float
100
292M shares
Mkt Cap
100
$102.3B
Range
100
156% spread
Composite Liquidity Score100/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2022$38.00$97.8988.1%Wide
2023$71.16$127.2456.5%Wide
2024$109.44$288.7590.1%Wide
2025$161.35$412.7087.6%Wide
3-Year Range
141.2%
Narrow Years
0 / 4
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.08x dampening
weinstein decliningrevenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
93.6%
Outstanding Shares
312M
Bid-Ask Spread
156.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.