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53

HTO

๐Ÿ’ก Utilities

H2O America

Conservative #511Aggressive #738Low Risk
$53.79-0.39%
Day High$55.18
Day Low$53.55
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$1.9B
52W Low $4452W High $57
Market Cap
$2.0B
P/E Ratio
18.0
Sector avg: 28.2
Rev Growth
11.6%
Sector avg: 23.4%
Earnings Growth
10.6%
Profit Margin
13.6%
Sector avg: 4.3%
Debt/Equity
1.25

Why This Score

HTO scores 54.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Low volatility (5.1% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • High conviction (74/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.25) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. HTO's rank of #511 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score54.0
Fundamental Score53.4
ML Score46.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
64.5
6 Month
72.1
Primary
1 Year
75.9

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
54
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
69
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
66
Grade B
Base
50.0
SHAP
+3.2
Factors
+0.8
Final
54.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

62AVG
Value79
Quality45
Growth60
Stability68
Investment58

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)58.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)75.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.8% to +3.4%
Medium-term
-0.4% to +6.1%
Long-term
+0.0% to +8.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 46

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.8/100
Target Upside+11.6%
Coverage4 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score53.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 โ€” Topping
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-3.1%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.73)
Relative Strength vs Sector-5.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.7)
Momentum Quality+0.072
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
9%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P84
Revenue growth vs Utilities peers
Sector PE Rank
P74
Valuation vs Utilities peers
Sector FCF Rank
P74
Free cash flow vs Utilities peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 53 relative to sector peers53/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 46th percentileP46
Blended score: 80% fundamental (53) + 20% ML (46) = 51.951.9
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 17% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +3.2pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Utilities โ€” Rank #9 of 19 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
HTO54.018.011.6%13.6%$2.0B
AEP74.319.510.9%16.4%$72.6B
EVRG72.822.76.2%14.9%$19.2B
OTTR71.412.9-2.0%21.2%$3.6B
LNT69.622.4-1.1%17.3%$18.5B
EXC67.217.85.3%11.4%$50.8B
ENLT60.568.352.7%11.1%$9.6B
NWE56.323.46.4%11.2%$4.3B
CEG55.833.0-5.4%15.9%$102.3B
TLN53.778.8-14.1%48.1%$16.9B
MGEE53.122.0-2.0%18.6%$3.0B
CWCO52.335.0-25.7%12.9%$613M
MSEX51.623.31.5%22.0%$1.0B
RNW43.414.919.4%9.2%$2.0B
ARTNA42.815.39.2%20.2%$345M
YORW35.323.55.5%26.1%$478M
Sector Average51.828.223.4%4.3%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy4 analysts
Buy: 3Hold: 1
Price Target
$61consensus
Low $61Median $61High $61
+13.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

H2O America, through its subsidiaries, provides water utility and other related services in the United States. The company engages in the production, purchase, storage, purification, distribution, wholesale, and retail sale of water and wastewater services; and supplies groundwater from wells, surface water from watershed run-off and diversion, reclaimed water, and imported water purchased from Santa Clara Valley Water District. It also offers non-tariffed services, including water system operations, maintenance agreements, and antenna site leases; contracted services, sewer operations, and other water related services; and a Linebacker protection plan for public drinking water customers in Connecticut and Maine. In addition, the company provides water services to approximately 232,000 connections that serve approximately one million people residing in portions of the cities of San Jose and Cupertino and in the cities of Campbell, Monte Sereno, Saratoga and the Town of Los Gatos, and adjacent unincorporated territories in the County of Santa Clara in the State of California; water service to approximately 142,000 service connections, which serve a population of approximately 463,000 people in 81 municipalities with a service area of approximately 275 square miles in Connecticut and Maine and approximately 3,000 wastewater connections in Southbury, Connecticut; approximately 29,000 service connections that serve approximately 88,000 people in a service area comprising more than 271 square miles in the region between San Antonio and Austin, Texas and approximately 1,000 wastewater connections. Further, it owns undeveloped land in California; and commercial properties and parcels of land in Connecticut. The company was formerly known as SJW Group and changed its name to H2O America in May 2025. H2O America was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

CEO
Andrew F. Walters
Employees
822
Beta
0.48
Industry
Regulated Water
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
58.6
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-5.9%
High: $57.17
From 52W Low
+22.9%
Low: $43.75
Moving Averages
10-Day
$54.70
Below
20-Day
$53.60
Above
50-Day
$52.00
Above
200-Day
$50.30
Above
60-Day Support
$46.32
60-Day Resistance
$55.84
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 โ€” ToppingScore: 31/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Transition signal: 3โ†’4
Price vs 200 SMA
+6.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-1.37%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.06x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
37
Confidence: 80%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
$49.43
Stop Entry Now Target
$55.40
No Entry
โ€”
No new entry โ€” distribution phase
Exit Target
$53.79
Reduce at current price ($53.79)
Stop Level
$50.96
Below SMA50 ($50.96)

Stage 3 distribution โ€” institutional selling pressure is building. Avoid new positions. If already holding, consider reducing and tightening stops below SMA50.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$194M$241M$198M$168M
Gross Profit$92M$134M$110M$101M
Operating Income$33M$65M$44M$36M
Net Income$16M$45M$25M$17M
EPS (Diluted)$0.45$1.27$0.71$0.49
Gross Margin47.2%55.8%55.4%60.3%
Operating Margin17.1%26.9%22.1%21.4%
Net Margin8.4%18.8%12.4%9.9%

Why This Stock

UtilitiesP/E ratio of 18.0Revenue growth 11.6%Profit margin 13.6%

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 66/100Score impact: +0.3pt

Volume
67
370K avg/day
Dollar Vol
80
$20M/day
Float
63
33M shares
Mkt Cap
60
$2.0B
Range
43
31% spread
Composite Liquidity Score66/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 22/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$58.01$73.6923.8%Narrow
2022$55.74$83.8840.3%Wide
2023$56.96$83.6638%Wide
2024$48.78$66.2230.3%Moderate
2025$43.75$57.1726.6%Moderate
3-Year Range
62.6%
Narrow Years
2 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
92.4%
Outstanding Shares
36M
Bid-Ask Spread
31.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.