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KTOS

🏭 Industrials

Kratos Defense & Security Solut

Conservative #1063Aggressive #1063Moderate RiskHigh 81
$88.23-2.70%
Day High$93.28
Day Low$88.21
Volume2.3M
Mkt Cap$15.0B
52W Low $2452W High $134
Market Cap
$15.2B
P/E Ratio
685.1
Sector avg: 64.5
Rev Growth
9.6%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
283.1%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
0.21

Why This Score

KTOS scores 31.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (81/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (237%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
  • Procyclicality: Late-cycle macro signals reduce confidence in extreme-momentum names. 2-point additional penalty.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 685.1x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (16.9%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -11.1 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, KTOS would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score31.8
Fundamental Score47.3
ML Score5.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
46.9
6 Month
52.4
Primary
1 Year
55.2

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.7%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
93
Grade A
Base
31.9
SHAP
+2.0
Factors
+0.8
Conviction
+1.1
Divergence
-4.1
Final
31.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

63AVG
Value40
Quality55
Growth90
Stability90
Investment40

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)45.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)84.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)64.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.6% to +2.4%
Medium-term
-1.9% to +4.3%
Long-term
-2.2% to +6.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 5

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+2.4%
6M Momentum+0.4%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+202.2%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.15)
Relative Strength vs Sector+225.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.973
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P66
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P1
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P31
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 54 relative to sector peers54/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 56th percentileP56
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (53.7) + 9% ML (55.7) + SHAP(+2.4) = 56.3
Factor quality: +1.0pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 16.9%. Max drawdown 17% (-3.6 pts)Moderate
Momentum mean-reversion: -6.0pt (237% 12m momentum)
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($15.2B market cap)+2.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +1.3pt (conviction=81)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -18 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Earnings growth (283%) far exceeds revenue growth (9.6%) — margin expansion may not be sustainable; Earnings/revenue growth ratio of 30x — earnings quality suspectFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials — Rank #106 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
KTOS31.8685.19.6%1.4%$15.2B
FER83.712.27.4%35.3%$51.9B
NDSN76.335.13.8%17.4%$16.6B
OMAB76.120.14.3%32.7%$6.2B
ODFL75.839.8-0.9%20.4%$40.6B
FAST72.742.68.7%15.3%$53.3B
WWD70.947.87.3%12.4%$22.8B
CSX70.926.5-3.1%20.5%$76.0B
LECO70.931.5-4.4%11.6%$16.2B
CTAS70.441.97.7%17.5%$77.7B
PCAR70.428.2-4.2%12.4%$66.7B
RYAAY69.713.03.8%11.6%$34.3B
CPRT69.123.09.7%33.4%$36.3B
FELE68.535.5-2.1%8.9%$4.8B
AEIS67.881.221.4%8.3%$11.9B
IESC67.730.916.9%9.1%$10.3B
Sector Average45.264.519.0%-48.2%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy22 analysts
Strong Buy: 1Buy: 17Hold: 4
Price Target
$109consensus
Low $79Median $110High $135
+23.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. operates as a government contractor of the U.S. Department of Defense. The company operates through two segments, Kratos Government Solutions and Unmanned Systems. The Kratos Government Solutions segment offers microwave electronic products, space and satellite communications, training and cybersecurity/ warfare, C5ISR/ modular systems, turbine technologies, and defense and rocket support services. The Unmanned Systems segment provides unmanned aerial systems, and unmanned ground and seaborne systems. It serves national security related agencies, the department of defense, intelligence agencies, and classified agencies, as well as international government agencies and domestic and international commercial customers. Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

CEO
Eric DeMarco
Employees
4,000
Beta
1.09
Industry
Aerospace & Defense
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
47.7
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-34.2%
High: $134
From 52W Low
+262.6%
Low: $24.33
Moving Averages
10-Day
$92.80
Below
20-Day
$95.70
Below
50-Day
$95.90
Below
200-Day
$72.50
Above
60-Day Support
$69.31
60-Day Resistance
$134
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 85/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+21.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+34.48%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.99x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$345M$348M$352M$303M
Gross Profit$74M$77M$74M$74M
Operating Income$10M$7M$4M$7M
Net Income$6M$9M$3M$5M
EPS (Diluted)$0.03$0.05$0.02$0.03
Gross Margin21.4%22.2%21.0%24.3%
Operating Margin3.0%2.0%1.1%2.2%
Net Margin1.7%2.5%0.8%1.5%

Why This Stock

Industrials

Tradability FilterGrade A — 93/100Score impact: -13.9pt

Volume
100
3.1M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$296M/day
Float
80
0K shares
Mkt Cap
83
$15.2B
Range
100
461% spread
Composite Liquidity Score93/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$18.83$30.4047%Wide
2022$8.90$22.2685.7%Wide
2023$9.87$21.4273.8%Wide
2024$16.71$28.7152.8%Wide
2025$23.90$112.57129.9%Wide
3-Year Range
167.8%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
461.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.