Back to Dashboard
57

CAR

๐Ÿญ Industrials

Avis Budget Group, Inc.

Conservative #382Aggressive #348Moderate RiskHigh 81
$92.90-1.16%
Day High$98.55
Day Low$92.07
Volume0.8M
Mkt Cap$3.3B
52W Low $5452W High $213
Market Cap
$3.4B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-1.2%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
51.2%
Profit Margin
-7.6%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

CAR scores 56.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 32.1% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -9.96) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (81/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (16.3%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-1.1 points) applied. CAR's rank of #382 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score56.9
Fundamental Score49.5
ML Score72.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
43.4
6 Month
48.5
Primary
1 Year
51.0

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.9%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
71
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
81
Grade A
Base
54.0
SHAP
+2.2
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.1
Divergence
-1.1
Final
56.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)79.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)49.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-7.9% to -0.8%
Medium-term
-11.6% to -1.1%
Long-term
-15.4% to -1.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 72

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+35.8%
Coverage12 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score70.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum+0.5%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+75.0%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.51)
Relative Strength vs Sector+38.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.1)
Momentum Quality+0.336
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P30
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P72
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P1
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 55 relative to sector peers55/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 53th percentileP53
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.5pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (54.6) + 9% ML (49.6) + SHAP(+2.5) = 56.6โ€”
Factor quality: +0.8pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 16.3%. Max drawdown 32% (-9.8 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($3.4B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +1.3pt (conviction=81)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -18 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Earnings/revenue growth ratio of Infinityx โ€” earnings quality suspect; High accrual ratio (-74.9%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials โ€” Rank #35 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CAR56.9N/A-1.2%-7.6%$3.4B
FER83.712.27.4%35.3%$51.9B
NDSN76.335.13.8%17.4%$16.6B
OMAB76.120.14.3%32.7%$6.2B
ODFL75.839.8-0.9%20.4%$40.6B
FAST72.742.68.7%15.3%$53.3B
WWD70.947.87.3%12.4%$22.8B
CSX70.926.5-3.1%20.5%$76.0B
LECO70.931.5-4.4%11.6%$16.2B
CTAS70.441.97.7%17.5%$77.7B
PCAR70.428.2-4.2%12.4%$66.7B
RYAAY69.713.03.8%11.6%$34.3B
CPRT69.123.09.7%33.4%$36.3B
FELE68.535.5-2.1%8.9%$4.8B
AEIS67.881.221.4%8.3%$11.9B
IESC67.730.916.9%9.1%$10.3B
Sector Average45.264.519.0%-48.2%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold12 analysts
Buy: 2Hold: 8Sell: 2
Price Target
$119consensus
Low $85Median $125High $142
+28.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Avis Budget Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides car and truck rentals, car sharing, and ancillary products and services to businesses and consumers. It operates the Avis brand, that offers vehicle rental and other mobility solutions to the premium commercial and leisure segments of the travel industry; the Budget Truck brand, a local, and one-way truck and cargo van rental businesses with a fleet of approximately 20,000 vehicles, which are rented through a network of approximately 465 dealer-operated and 385 company-operated locations that serve the consumer and light commercial sectors in the continental United States; and the Zipcar brand, a car sharing network. The company also operates various other car rental brands, such as Budget, Payless, Apex, Maggiore, MoriniRent, FranceCars, Amicoblue, Turiscar, and ACL Hire. In addition, it offers optional insurance products and coverages, such as supplemental liability, personal accident, personal effects protection, emergency sickness protection, and automobile towing protection and cargo insurance products; fuel service options, roadside assistance services, electronic toll collection services, curbside delivery, tablet rentals, access to satellite radio, portable navigation units, and child safety seat rentals; automobile towing equipment and other moving accessories, such as hand trucks, furniture pads, and moving supplies; and Business Intelligence solution, an online portal for corporate travel. Avis Budget Group, Inc. operates in approximately 10,400 locations worldwide. The company was formerly known as Cendant Corporation and changed its name to Avis Budget Group, Inc. in September 2006. Avis Budget Group, Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Parsippany, New Jersey.

CEO
Brian J. Choi
Employees
17,000
Beta
2.28
Industry
Rental & Leasing Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
28.3
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-56.3%
High: $212.81
From 52W Low
+71.9%
Low: $54.03
Moving Averages
10-Day
$106.40
Below
20-Day
$112.00
Below
50-Day
$121.30
Below
200-Day
$142.60
Below
60-Day Support
$85.96
60-Day Resistance
$139.02
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 15/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-34.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+10.57%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.78x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
42
Confidence: 40%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$2.7B$3.5B$3.0B$2.4B
Gross Profit$513M$1.3B$809M$340M
Operating Income$168M$708M$392M$5M
Net Income$-747M$359M$4M$-505M
EPS (Diluted)$-21.25$10.10$0.11$-14.22
Gross Margin19.3%36.2%26.6%14.0%
Operating Margin6.3%20.1%12.9%0.2%
Net Margin-28.0%10.2%0.1%-20.8%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsValuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 81/100Score impact: +2.7pt

Volume
81
534K avg/day
Dollar Vol
98
$47M/day
Float
65
35M shares
Mkt Cap
63
$3.4B
Range
100
294% spread
Composite Liquidity Score81/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.11x dampening
weinstein decliningslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
98.2%
Outstanding Shares
35M
Bid-Ask Spread
294.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.