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63

AAON

🏭 Industrials

AAON, Inc.

Conservative #245Aggressive #319Moderate RiskModerate 63ML↑ 19pt
$99.05-1.88%
Day High$101.70
Day Low$95.00
Volume1.1M
Mkt Cap$8.1B
52W Low $6252W High $116
Market Cap
$8.2B
P/E Ratio
83.5
Sector avg: 64.5
Rev Growth
2.7%
Sector avg: 18.9%
Earnings Growth
-5.1%
Profit Margin
14.0%
Sector avg: -47.9%
Debt/Equity
0.21

Why This Score

AAON scores 62.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 20.4% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (32%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Elevated valuation at 83.5x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (12.8%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-0.8 points) applied. AAON's rank of #245 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score62.8
Fundamental Score55.6
ML Score76.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
79.0
6 Month
88.3
Primary
1 Year
92.9

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
67
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
88
Grade A
Base
59.6
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+1.6
Divergence
-0.8
Final
62.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

57AVG
Value40
Quality70
Growth45
Stability90
Investment40

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)49.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)76.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)85.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+6.9% to +12.3%
Medium-term
+11.2% to +19.5%
Long-term
+17.2% to +28.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 76

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+16.2%
Coverage5 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score66.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+10.1%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.69)
Relative Strength vs Sector+20.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.5)
Momentum Quality+0.246
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
3%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P7
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P60
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 68 relative to sector peers68/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 86th percentileP86
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.5pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (67.8) + 9% ML (86.4) + SHAP(+2.5) = 72.0—
Factor quality: +1.6pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 12.8%. Max drawdown 23% (-6.2 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($8.2B market cap)+0.5 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.2pt (ML 19pt higher)—
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials — Rank #22 of 136 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
AAON62.883.52.7%14.0%$8.2B
FER83.712.27.4%35.3%$51.9B
NDSN76.335.13.8%17.4%$16.6B
OMAB76.120.14.3%32.7%$6.2B
ODFL75.839.8-0.9%20.4%$40.6B
FAST72.742.68.7%15.3%$53.3B
WWD70.947.87.3%12.4%$22.8B
CSX70.926.5-3.1%20.5%$76.0B
LECO70.931.5-4.4%11.6%$16.2B
CTAS70.441.97.7%17.5%$77.7B
PCAR70.428.2-4.2%12.4%$66.7B
RYAAY69.713.03.8%11.6%$34.3B
CPRT69.123.09.7%33.4%$36.3B
FELE68.535.5-2.1%8.9%$4.8B
AEIS67.881.221.4%8.3%$11.9B
IESC67.730.916.9%9.1%$10.3B
Sector Average44.964.518.9%-47.9%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy5 analysts
Buy: 5
Price Target
$118consensus
Low $115Median $118High $120
+18.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

AAON, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, marketing, and selling air conditioning and heating equipment in the United States and Canada. The company operates through three segments: AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BasX. It offers rooftop units, data center cooling solutions, cleanroom systems, chillers, packaged outdoor mechanical rooms, air handling units, makeup air units, energy recovery units, condensing units, geothermal/water-source heat pumps, coils, and controls. The company markets and sells its products to retail, manufacturing, educational, lodging, supermarket, data centers, medical and pharmaceutical, and other commercial industries. It sells its products through a network of independent manufacturer representative organizations and internal sales force. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

CEO
Matthew J. Tobolski
Employees
4,812
Beta
1.11
Industry
Construction
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
58.7
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-14.6%
High: $116.04
From 52W Low
+59.8%
Low: $62
Moving Averages
10-Day
$101.50
Below
20-Day
$97.80
Above
50-Day
$88.70
Above
200-Day
$88.60
Above
60-Day Support
$73.19
60-Day Resistance
$106.85
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 — ToppingScore: 29/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+11.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+0.42%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.85x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
29
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$384M$312M$322M$298M
Gross Profit$107M$83M$86M$78M
Operating Income$44M$24M$35M$29M
Net Income$31M$15M$29M$25M
EPS (Diluted)$0.37$0.19$0.35$0.30
Gross Margin27.8%26.6%26.8%26.1%
Operating Margin11.3%7.6%10.9%9.9%
Net Margin8.0%5.0%9.1%8.3%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsProfit margin 14.0%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A — 88/100Score impact: -13.9pt

Volume
99
972K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$98M/day
Float
60
0K shares
Mkt Cap
76
$8.2B
Range
100
87% spread
Composite Liquidity Score88/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$39.48$55.8634.4%Moderate
2022$31.67$55.3354.4%Wide
2023$46.87$75.2446.5%Wide
2024$68.38$144.0771.3%Wide
2025$62.00$137.9075.9%Wide
3-Year Range
101.8%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
87.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.